Hvem skal ind?

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Niels K
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af Niels K » tirsdag, 15. okt, 2019 07:39

Jeg håber, at ingen af dem har lyst til at tage nogen som helst steder hen, da det er alt for sjovt spændende for dem at være i Liverpool. De er i deres bedste fodboldalder, og derfor skal naturligvis gøre alt for, at de bliver hos os, indtil de skal slutte karrieren af med en tur til Østen eller Amerika.

Dette gælder for alle vores bærende spillere, og dem er der mange af. Vi behøver dermed ikke købe disse top dyre spillere men kan koncentrere os om, at vi henter de helt rigtige talenter til klubben, så vi selv har gjort det næste kuld klar til at tage over for de 3 forreste samt Milner, Hendo og Gini.

ilusio
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af ilusio » tirsdag, 15. okt, 2019 08:13

Jeg tror den rigtige strategi er at hente de rigtige talenter, men nogle vi kan have i en del år og ikke kun 2-3.

Ellers risikerer vi det vanvid vi ser i klubber som real madrid.
I support two teams: Liverpool FC and any team playing scum.

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » tirsdag, 15. okt, 2019 22:44

ilusio skrev:
tirsdag, 15. okt, 2019 06:35
Stats fortæller kun om hvordan det var tidligere, ikke hvordan det vil være i morgen ;)
Arh, det er vidst ikke helt korrekt, hverken generelt eller specifikt for fodbold. Det er naturligvis klart at visse ting er uforudsigelige, men der er en ret stor industri der lever af at kunne forudsige pba af statistik (både bookies og bettere). Her er det naturligvis en afgørende faktor, at odds primært er styret af udbud og efterspørgsel, men informationen om et bet er profitabelt eller ej jf. givne odds, kan sige meget om med hvilken sandsynlighed noget meget vel kan være i morgen. En del af den teknologi der bruges til den slags er ved at brede sig ud over blot betting verdenen. Prøv evt at check lidt af det arbejde som halfspace laver. Det er ret fascinerende.

ilusio
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af ilusio » onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:09

Stats er stadigvæk kun en opgørelse af hvad der er sket tidligere.
At historik er glimrende til at sætte sandsynligheder for hvad der sker i fremtiden er noget andet. Men det vedbliver at være historik.
I support two teams: Liverpool FC and any team playing scum.

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:29

ilusio skrev:
onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:09
Stats er stadigvæk kun en opgørelse af hvad der er sket tidligere.
At historik er glimrende til at sætte sandsynligheder for hvad der sker i fremtiden er noget andet. Men det vedbliver at være historik.
Ikke helt. Jeg vil helst ikke deraile transfertråden, så jeg stopper med at svare her, men du skal være velkommen til at sende en pb hvis du vil vide mere om det. Sagen er, at såfremt du har tilpas mange datapunkter på en given population og/eller en eller flere af dens aktører, så er det ret utroligt hvor nøjagtige forudsigelser der kan laves. Også inden for noget så tilsyneladende volatilt og isoleret som fodbold.

Filos of Isk
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af Filos of Isk » torsdag, 17. okt, 2019 09:24

ilusio skrev:
tirsdag, 15. okt, 2019 08:13
Jeg tror den rigtige strategi er at hente de rigtige talenter, men nogle vi kan have i en del år og ikke kun 2-3.

Ellers risikerer vi det vanvid vi ser i klubber som real madrid.
Det er det helt sikkert og det er vel også det der er strategien.

Manolas har f.eks. ambitioner om at de Ligt laver endnu et stort skifte om et par år* og derfor var det mindre tiltalende for os at hente ham da han i givet fald pludselig ikke længere er en spiller vi kan have i 10 men derimod mere var en måde at tjene 50 milliooner euro på 3 år på.

Det er også klart at hvis vi kan formå at time det således at Salah eller Mané bliver solgt i god ro og orden til rigtigt mange penge, dagen inden de mister farten - så ville det jo være genialt, men dels er de jo andet og mere end bare fart og dels ser de jo ud til at hygge sig meget godt. Vi så jo også i Bayern hvordan den gradvise udlusning af Robben og Ribery, der jo på papiret var super fornuftigt, men i virkeligheden måtte de to rutinerede stjerner træde til meget oftere end planlagt.

Ja et generationsskifte kan være træls, men omvendt fik Real Madrid f.eks. 4 CL trofæer på kort tid hvor de ikke pillede ved de bærende klræfter på holdet. Det ene udelukker jo ikke nødvendigvis det andet, men de påvirker hinanden.

*nu ved jeg ikke hvor veldokumenteret den der frikøbklausul der træder i kræft er.

texy
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af texy » torsdag, 17. okt, 2019 13:55

pow9199 skrev:
onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:29
ilusio skrev:
onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:09
Stats er stadigvæk kun en opgørelse af hvad der er sket tidligere.
At historik er glimrende til at sætte sandsynligheder for hvad der sker i fremtiden er noget andet. Men det vedbliver at være historik.
Ikke helt. Jeg vil helst ikke deraile transfertråden, så jeg stopper med at svare her, men du skal være velkommen til at sende en pb hvis du vil vide mere om det. Sagen er, at såfremt du har tilpas mange datapunkter på en given population og/eller en eller flere af dens aktører, så er det ret utroligt hvor nøjagtige forudsigelser der kan laves. Også inden for noget så tilsyneladende volatilt og isoleret som fodbold.
Jeg synes nu, at det vil være ganske interessant at vide, hvordan stats ikke kun er en opgørelse af tidligere hændelser? Eller omformuleret. Jeg vil gerne se statistisk materiale på fremtidige hændelser. For den krystalkugle vil jeg gerne have fingre i.

Som du selv siger, så kan man lave temmeligt nøjagtige forudsigelser. Men baseret på mit videnskabelige kendskab, kan det aldrig blive til andet end en høj sandsynlighed (som eksempelvis den DMI bruger til at forudsige morgendagens vejr med).
Kloppite

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » torsdag, 17. okt, 2019 23:59

texy skrev:
torsdag, 17. okt, 2019 13:55
pow9199 skrev:
onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:29
ilusio skrev:
onsdag, 16. okt, 2019 12:09
Stats er stadigvæk kun en opgørelse af hvad der er sket tidligere.
At historik er glimrende til at sætte sandsynligheder for hvad der sker i fremtiden er noget andet. Men det vedbliver at være historik.
Ikke helt. Jeg vil helst ikke deraile transfertråden, så jeg stopper med at svare her, men du skal være velkommen til at sende en pb hvis du vil vide mere om det. Sagen er, at såfremt du har tilpas mange datapunkter på en given population og/eller en eller flere af dens aktører, så er det ret utroligt hvor nøjagtige forudsigelser der kan laves. Også inden for noget så tilsyneladende volatilt og isoleret som fodbold.
Jeg synes nu, at det vil være ganske interessant at vide, hvordan stats ikke kun er en opgørelse af tidligere hændelser? Eller omformuleret. Jeg vil gerne se statistisk materiale på fremtidige hændelser. For den krystalkugle vil jeg gerne have fingre i.

Som du selv siger, så kan man lave temmeligt nøjagtige forudsigelser. Men baseret på mit videnskabelige kendskab, kan det aldrig blive til andet end en høj sandsynlighed (som eksempelvis den DMI bruger til at forudsige morgendagens vejr med).
Ok, jeg skal forsøge at gøre det kort, det er naturligvis et ultra komplekst emne og begyndte omkring intelligensmåling hos Galton, som faktisk vandt ret voldsomt indpas herhjemme, hvor GM. Castenschiold, Bramsen og Lehmann i starten af det 20. århundrede var ret store fortalere for psykometrikken. Hvor intelligensmålinger og psykometrik startede som måleredskaber, blev det faktisk ret hurtigt tydeligt, at de også kunne fortælle hvilket output der kunne forventes i en given population (allerede her bevæger vi os i retning af at etablere en solid positiv udsigelseskraft). Hvad dette tilbød, var en måde at sammenligne data hen over større populationer end tidligere, og man fandt at de der i særlige aldersgrupper besad en særlig intelligenskvotient, kunne forventes at handle på sammenlignelige måder. Eksempelvis kunne et barn på 12, med en IQ i den lave ende af spektret aldrig blive professor i fysik eller filosofi. Et simpelt eksempel, men det der her blev muligt, var at finde målbare, sammenlignelige og gentagelige måder at forstå menneskers handlinger. For gjorde man det, kunne det sammenlignes med at lave statistik på plat/krone: Med tilpas mange tests kan du beregne hvilken lov mønten er underlagt, og derfra kan du også forudse dens fremtidige fordeling. Det interessante er så, når vi springer frem til moderne psykologi og økonomi, eksempelvis som det man ser i behavioural economics (Richard Thaler eller Daniel Kahnemann er gode steder at starte, selv er jeg ret fascineret af Gary Becker), så er de indsigter fra statistisk og psykometrik blevet udviklet yderligere, men grundtanken er den samme: Hvis vi har tilpas stor mængde data, så kan vi forudsige fordelingen af udfald for givne hændelser. Vi kan ikke lave en forudsigelse der siger at i morgen sker præcis denne ene hændelse, men med en uhyggelig nøjagtighed kan vi sige hvordan mennesker reagerer, mennesker som har frit vilje. Et eksempel på dette er det arbejde Cambridge Analytica lavede, hvor de vidste, fordi de havde nøjagtige datapunkter på en stor række personer, hvordan hver enkelt person bedst muligt kunne påvirkes således at det samlede population agerede som ønsket. Med andre ord: Selvom de påvirkede subjekter var irrationelle og havde frit valg, så kunne man (og kan man) stadig beregne realistiske fordelinger af udfald, der tager hensyn til irrationalitet (eller tabu, religion, præferencer etc). Hvordan er dette så brugbart i fodbold? Det er det fordi de samme modeller også kan bruges til at analysere eksempelvis hvordan hold sparker dødbolde, hvad der sker når en spiller står overfor en anden spiller. Igen, prøv at søg efter halfspace, dansk virksomhed hvis speciale er denne slags, og som har leveret data til flere topklubber. Jeg ved ikke om det er offentligt tilgængeligt, og jeg ved de er super beskyttende omkring deres arbejde, men deres arbejde er det bedste eksempel jeg kender til, der bruger det her på lige præcis fodbold. Benham og Tony Bloom gør det også. Håber det er svar nok, ellers må yderligere diskussion bliver i KBH over en kaffe eller en øl.

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » fredag, 18. okt, 2019 00:03

Her er et hurtigt eksempel
https://halfspace.io/lbp/

Filos of Isk
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af Filos of Isk » fredag, 18. okt, 2019 07:48

Som jeg forstår det, så er det jo også avanceret statistik som Liverpool brugte for at finde frem til at Salah, Robbo og Keita kunne være værd at bruge sine penge på og så sender man også scouts efter dem for at se at det også ligner en god spiller.
Men det er helt rigtigt at man skal have for øje at det er mere dybdegående statistikker man skal bruge end dem der er på opsummeringsskærmene efter en fodboldkamp i tv.

Men for at vende tilbage til roden...
Så er udfordringen vel at finde nok datapunkter til at kunne lade statistik alene dømme om vi skal sælge Mané eller Salah først. Ikke så meget hvad man kan hvis man har data nok. Og kunsten er vel også lidt at vide hvordan resten af holdet vil reagere.

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » fredag, 18. okt, 2019 13:00

Jeg har desværre ingen kendskab til hvad Liverpool bruger, men jeg ved hvad nogle CL-klubber bruger, og jeg ville være overrasket hvis ikke Liverpool er på højde med det. Moneyball er i meget høj grad blevet en ting i fodbold, men for at få denne (indrømmet lange) ekskurs tilbage på sporet, så er jeg ikke bekendt med værktøjer der kan forudsige hvornår spillere begynder at falde i kvalitet og hvornår det er opportunt at sælge dem, men jeg ville være meget overrasket hvis ikke også det eksisterede i en eller anden form. Måske der er nogle data scientists eller algoritme-forskere på sidelinjen her, der kan oplyse os yderligere?

pow9199
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Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » lørdag, 19. okt, 2019 01:20

Sidste hurtige take på muligheder for at forudsige, det interessante for denne del er 14 minutter inde og ca 5 min frem. Det er blot for at dele et ret tilgængeligt eksempel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmI7NnMqwLQ

YNWA96
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Tilmeldt: tirsdag, 21. mar, 2017 18:08

Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af YNWA96 » lørdag, 19. okt, 2019 08:11

Man kan få et lille indblik i hvordan LFC rekrutterer spillere, i dette interview med LFC “data guru” Ian Graham.


DUBNER: Dan, thank you. Lucy Woodall, Oliver Steeds thank you so much for telling us about your mission. And would you please welcome our final guest this evening. He is, as chance would have it, one of the men responsible for bringing the Mayor of London’s favorite soccer player, Mohamed Salah, to Liverpool. Would you please welcome the director of research at Liverpool Football Club, Mr. Ian Graham. Ian, great to have you here. Congratulations on the Champions League trophy. I’m sure that was mostly your doing.

Ian GRAHAM: Yeah. Oh, only 80 percent.

DUBNER: Let’s start with the discovery idea. Which football player would you claim as your favorite discovery?

GRAHAM: So it’s important to say that signing a player is a multidisciplinary exercise. So you’ve got the traditional methods of scouting, some newer methods of video scouting, the coaches and the manager have to be on board and enthusiastic about the player. My role is the data-analysis side of analyzing football, which is the newer side. And the sorts of players that I really like are players who shine through in the data, but don’t naturally shine through for your typical football fan or even your typical scout. These are sort of awkward, ungainly- looking players or players that have been overlooked for various other purposes. One of my favorite players is Andy Robertson, our left back, one of the best left backs in Europe, and now European champion of course.

DUBNER: And is he horribly ugly or something? What was the problem?

GRAHAM: No, so, Andy Robinson’s problem was his background as much as anything. So he only started playing English Premier League football maybe at the age of 22. And he played for Hull City, which was not a very good football team. They got relegated from the Premier League. And he was the best young fullback in Britain at the time. He was a really strange case of a really attacking fullback playing in a really poor defensive team.

DUBNER: And which metrics particularly could you look at that would identify that ability?

GRAHAM: So we get data on every ball touch that every player makes in a game, where it was on the pitch, and what happened next. We can see where all of the players are, at 25 frames per second. It’s done with optical tracking. The same technology that is used for missile-tracking, originally. It’s much easier to track a person than a missile. They travel a little slower.

DUBNER: Can you name just one or two on-field metrics that are measurable, that really matter a lot, but which are not obvious to fans and maybe even managers and scouts, but you can identify in the data?

GRAHAM: Yes. That’s a really good question. We tried to put everything into one currency. So football is measured in goals because that’s what gets you a win. We try to take whatever action a player does on a pitch — whether it’s a pass or a shot or a tackle if you’re a defender — and ask the question, “What was this team’s chance of scoring a goal before this action happened?” And then, “What was this team’s chance of scoring a goal after that action happened?” And we call that “goal probability added,” which is a really catchy name. The thing that I’m really obsessed about is the risk-reward payoff of passes. So, some of the best passers in the game have some of the lowest pass-completion percentages in the game. And that’s because the risk-reward payoff is very, very skewed in soccer or football. We are in London, not in New York. So it’s very easy to massage your statistics and get a high pass-completion percentage by playing very conservative passes that do nothing for your team’s chance of scoring a goal. And the passes I really love are the passes that go in behind the opposition defense, that take four or five defenders out of the game. Those passes are really hard to make. But someone who gets those passes correct half the time would be a world-class attacking midfielder.

DUBNER: That is really fascinating, and a great illustration. Is it difficult to identify those high-risk passes in the data?

GRAHAM: When we look through the lens of the data, it’s not a perfect lens, you see a smeared-out view because you don’t see all of the details of exactly how much pressure this player was under or exactly where the defenders were. But the players who play a full season of football attempt that sort of pass, or the good ones at least, attempt that sort of pass often enough that the law of large numbers starts coming into play, and you can get a good statistical reading of the player.

DUBNER: So let me ask you this: you got a Ph.D. in theoretical physics at Cambridge. I didn’t mean to laugh at that part—

GRAHAM: It’s a good university.

DUBNER: Yeah, no— but how do you go from that pursuit to analyzing football?

GRAHAM: Lots of luck and questionable career decisions is the answer. So I was doing a post-doc after my Ph.D. and responded to an advert that asked, “Would you like to do football statistics for a living?”

DUBNER: So it was pretty straightforward, really.

GRAHAM: Yeah.

DUBNER: All right, so let me just ask you a very basic question: in your job as director of research for Liverpool Football Club, in which way is analytics more important — on-field play, the actual game and the athletes? Or the allocation of resources when it comes to buying and selling players?

GRAHAM: So, it can help a lot with both things but the place where it really can help is the acquisition of players in terms of helping our scouting process. In Premier League football and European football in general, there’s a worldwide free market of football players. So if we spot a player that we would like to play for Liverpool and we can pay the price that the selling club demands, then we can buy him. And the real power of data analysis is when the data set is large. We have detailed data on hundreds of thousands of players. Maybe only five percent of those would be anywhere near a Premier League level player. But that’s still 5,000 players, which is too big a set of players to scout everyone in depth and in detail. So we can really help that filtering and identification process.

DUBNER: Now, I understand that you played a role in hiring Jürgen Klopp, the manager of Liverpool now. Correct?

GRAHAM: Yes, it’s a small role.

DUBNER: Tell us about that quickly.

GRAHAM: So our owners, and me and all my colleagues were huge fans of Jürgen and his Dortmund team. In the early 2010s they played the most exciting brand of football in Europe and coming from a place really not of financial dominance. So they won the German Bundesliga twice, at a huge financial deficit compared to Bayern Munich. And so he was always one of our dream hires for a manager. But his last season at Dortmund was disastrous. So they were in the relegation zone. And the German media said it’s all over for Dortmund, Klopp’s lost it, and there’s no way back for them. Our analysis showed something quite different. Which was that they were still clearly the second-best team in Germany. But the performances did not match the results. So I analyzed 10 seasons of Bundesliga performances, and Dortmund were the second-unluckiest team in that 10-year history. It was just some terrible luck that cost Jürgen that one season.

DUBNER: In addition to being a wildly successful manager with Liverpool and Dortmund before, Jürgen Klopp also appears to be an extraordinarily kind and thoughtful human being. Can you please tell us about something horrible that he’s done?

GRAHAM: I’m going to have to disappoint you, I’m afraid. My concern about Jürgen was his act that you see on the cameras every week, was just that, an act, and that the real person would be someone different. But it really isn’t.

DUBNER: That is disappointing.

GRAHAM: It’s very disappointing. I mean, data analysis, because it’s new and because football is a very conservative sport, it’s something that is difficult to get across and it’s very understandable for a manager who has a hundred other things to worry about to just say, “You know what, I’m not interested in this.” But Jürgen took the time and was kind enough to let me explain our approach. He understood it and appreciated it, which already puts him in the top 5 percent of managers, in my opinion.

DUBNER: Okay, but I’ve got something on him. I’ve also read that when Klopp came to Liverpool, and you needed a striker, that you brought to Klopp a list of what you thought were the 10 best available strikers. And at the top of the list I believe, was Mohamed Salah, who at that point was playing for Roma. And Klopp came to you and said, “This list, my friend, Ian Graham, is not good enough. We don’t want those players. Give me more.” You gave him more, then he said, “These are even worse.” And then went back, and ultimately you did hire Mo Salah. So what did he not see that the rest of you did see, and how much nicer was he to you after it all worked out well?

GRAHAM: So luckily enough, in the aggressive way that Jürgen would have asked this question, I wasn’t the person that he was demanding these answers from.

DUBNER: Can we do some role-play? I’ll be you and you’ll be him. Sorry. I’ll be the person who’s not you, that he’s yelling at and you’ll be him. So what would he say?

GRAHAM: I’m afraid my German accent would be culturally insensitive.

DUBNER: Do you want to do it in a neutral— you’re Welsh, yes? Do you want to just do it in neutral Welsh then, and we’ll imagine?

GRAHAM: Well, I think so. The process that we go through is to—

DUBNER: I can tell by your dissembling you’re not going to tell me, are you?

GRAHAM: Oh yeah. I can be direct if you like. No.

DUBNER: So Liverpool, you, paid Roma $41 million for Salah, yes?

GRAHAM: I’m not sure about the exchange rate, but sounds about right.

DUBNER: What’s he worth now — I realize he’s only a year-and-a-bit into a five-year contract.

GRAHAM: Yes, that’s true, and he’s not for sale.

DUBNER: If he were, what’s he worth of the transfer market right now do you think?

GRAHAM: I think if we could benchmark him against a recent player that we sold, that was Philip Coutinho, to Barcelona, your minimum starting bid would be 150 million euros.

DUBNER: Yeah.

GRAHAM: At which point the answer would be, “No. Stop wasting our time.”

DUBNER: Last year, you had a phenomenal year. Won the Champions League. Came in second in the Prem, with enough points to have won in just about any other year. So there is this statistical concept we all know called regression to the mean, which suggests that a particularly good result — or a particularly bad result — is usually followed by a more average result. So considering your season last year, how many trophies do you think Liverpool wins this year?

GRAHAM: Well, I shall give you a straight answer. Just over half. And let me give you the details and you can check, the bookmakers kind of agree with our internal opinion, which is nice. So Premier League, 25 percent. Champions League, maybe 12 to 15 percent. League Cup, 12 percent. FA Cup, 12. So the chance of at least one trophy is greater than 50 percent.

DUBNER: Which trophy do you want more this year?

GRAHAM: Premier League. Well, as a rational person I should say the Champions League, because the income, the difference between winning the Champions League and the semifinal for example, absolutely dwarfs the difference between first and fourth in the Premier League. So rationally, I’d take the Champions League.

DUBNER: Does the director of research get a pretty nice cut from the Champions League victory?

GRAHAM: A small cut.

DUBNER: Do you want to tell us how small?

GRAHAM: I do not.

DUBNER: Dan Schreiber do you have some other football discoveries to share with us?

SCHREIBER: Yeah, I discovered that for the last 12 years there is an annual football cup that’s been played, called the Tolstoy’s Cup. Have you heard of that, Ian?

GRAHAM: I have not.

SCHREIBER: It’s amazing. Okay, there’s only two teams that play actually. It’s the War Studies Department at King’s College London and the Peace Studies Department at the University of Bradford. So they’ve met 12 times. Peace has beaten war eight games to four. And then this is — I got told this by a fellow researcher, I really hope it’s true. As part of a holistic training regime, footballers at Sweden’s Östersunds football club are contractually obliged to read Dostoyevsky. I don’t know if that’s put into your training with Liverpool.

GRAHAM: It’s not mandatory. It’s advisory.

DUBNER: Dan, good stuff. So Ian, I’m guessing you’re not aware of this but Freakonomics Radio actually sponsors a soccer team, or football club. They’re called Dun Cow FC. They’re in Shrewsbury, and this began with an email out of the blue from the club’s media manager and third-string goalkeeper. His name is Alex Simpson and we decided to sponsor the club when we realized that Alex Simpson was actually 15 years old at the time, and had worked up the gumption to write and ask for sponsorship. His dad is the team’s manager and the star player on the team is his older brother. So Dun Cow, they are a Sunday league amateur club who are playing right now about 17 tiers below the Premier League. But they’ve received three promotions in the past few years so it’s possible that in 17 more years, they’ll be playing with you in the Premier League.
And Alex Simpson is now studying history and politics at Keele University, and he’s actually here tonight and he’s got something for you, Ian Graham. Alex, would you come on up? So what we’ve got here is an official Dun Cow FC jersey. Freakonomics Radio logo on the breast. And you can see on the back, “Graham.” So, before you actually take permanent ownership of it though, Ian, let me ask Alex to ask you — Alex, I know that your ultimate goal is to get Dun Cow all the way to the Prem, and you’ve got here a guy who probably has some good analytics software he could maybe loan you. And I’m just curious if you have a shot here with Ian Graham and he’s on the spot and you’ve just given him a beautiful free jersey with his name on it. I think you should try to get some info from him.

Alex SIMPSON: So we’ve just been building our squad for the new season and there’s one position we think we slightly could do with an extra body there, which is a quick center back who can also play at right back, like Joe Gomez for Liverpool. So from your analytic side, what we should see in those players?

GRAHAM: And you’re — you’re playing the 17th tier of English football? So the fuel of data analysis is data, and in the English game, our data probably only goes down to the eighth level. We might know some names of players that low. So in terms of specific recommendations, I’m stuck.

DUBNER: You seemed so nice up until this moment.

GRAHAM: Without data, I’m nothing. I mean, my general observations about lower-league football is that the level of quality flattens out quick, so as you go down the levels, the impact of athleticism becomes higher and higher and higher. So just get big strong players who can run for 90 minutes, because that’s going to be your limiting factor.

DUBNER: I am curious, though. Alex, when you’re trying to recruit players to an amateur team, you’re dealing with different issues than just athleticism — like reliability, right?

SIMPSON: One hundred percent. One hundred percent, yeah.

DUBNER: And I know that, Ian, even at the top level of all sports, there are athletes who are 100 percent on the physical-ability scale and very low on the reliability scale.

GRAHAM: Yeah, absolutely.

DUBNER: Do you have anything to help Alex scout for reliability?

GRAHAM: That’s a really good question. Many years ago, we did a study with an unnamed club’s academy, where we asked the players to rate themselves on talent, and we asked the coaches to rate the players. And we also asked the players, the coaches, a personality questionnaire to say, are you strong-minded, are you punctual? And the correlation between the player’s self-rating of ability and the coaches’ rating of the player’s ability was zero. The coaches’ rating of ability was only correlated with ability to obey instructions and punctuality. So the way to get far, even at sort of good academy level, is to do what your coach says and turn up on time. Those are not necessarily the best players. So if you have a mercurial talent, as long as you can somehow get him on the pitch, they might be difficult to manage, but that’s the sort of player that will be overlooked by your rivals.
DUBNER: Alex, your dad, the manager, is former military. Does he do a pretty good job of getting people to show up and fall in line?

SIMPSON: Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, definitely. We have one club rule for signing players, which is “no dickheads.”

GRAHAM: The problem is that if everyone has that rule there’s gonna be a surplus of really talented dickheads that could win you the league.

DUBNER: Ah yes. I love my job, I really do. I’m afraid, however, it’s time for us to go. It’s been a remarkably interesting evening, at least for me, and I very much hope for all of you as well. I have to say, I feel that our faith in the spirit of British discovery has been at least partially restored tonight. Thanks to all our guests tonight: Ian Graham of Liverpool FC and Alex Simpson of Dun Cow FC; Lucy Woodall and Oliver Steeds of Nekton Mission; Oriel Sullivan of University College London; Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London; the truly wonderful Dan Schreiber; but most of all thanks to all of you for listening this week and every week to Freakonomics Radio. Good night.

texy
Indlæg: 9729
Tilmeldt: onsdag, 27. jun, 2007 14:49
Geografisk sted: København
Alder: 48

Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af texy » lørdag, 19. okt, 2019 17:22

@POW9199

Fint og interessant indlæg du kom med. Det ændrer dog ikke ved det faktum, at statistik kun kan basere sig på historisk data. Når du bevæger dig ind i fremtiden, arbejder du med sandsynlighed.

Men som du selv var inde på, så bevæger den debat sig lidt væk fra trådens emne.

@YNWA96

Fedt interview, du har fundet der. Det var interessant og ret sjov læsning. Især den sidste kommentar fra Graham, om at Alex muligvis overser et helt hold af "dickheads", der kan vinde ham ligaen :-)
Kloppite

pow9199
Indlæg: 515
Tilmeldt: torsdag, 02. jan, 2014 10:47

Re: Hvem skal ind?

Indlæg af pow9199 » tirsdag, 22. okt, 2019 10:23

texy skrev:
lørdag, 19. okt, 2019 17:22
@POW9199

Fint og interessant indlæg du kom med. Det ændrer dog ikke ved det faktum, at statistik kun kan basere sig på historisk data. Når du bevæger dig ind i fremtiden, arbejder du med sandsynlighed.

Men som du selv var inde på, så bevæger den debat sig lidt væk fra trådens emne.
Det er en fejl at tro, at statistik udelukkende er baseret på historisk data. Når man dykker lidt ind under motorhjelmen på statistik og sandsynlighed, finder man ud af, at det i stigende omfang er svært at trække en direkte grænse mellem de to (for så vidt de nogensinde var adskilt) og de to ting der kan kaldes "statistikkens normative element" og "statistikkens deskriptivt forudsigende element" er faktisk emner som forskere bruger hele karrierer på (hvorfor det er muligt der sidder en eller flere med på siden, som er skarpere på dette end jeg).
texy skrev:
lørdag, 19. okt, 2019 17:22
@YNWA96

Fedt interview, du har fundet der. Det var interessant og ret sjov læsning. Især den sidste kommentar fra Graham, om at Alex muligvis overser et helt hold af "dickheads", der kan vinde ham ligaen :-)
Enig, helt vildt. Jeg fandt et ret fed artikel på NY-times der yderligere gik i dybden med det: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/maga ... rpool.html

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